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Cabinet crash
Politics doesn’t normally make great television (although the forthcoming Prime Minister debates may change that) but a symbolic political moment was recently voted the third greatest television moment of all time.
Michael Portillo’s shock Election defeat in 1997, when the Labour candidate Steven Twigg secured a staggering 17.4% swing to oust the then Defence Secretary, came to symbolise the sea change from the Conservatives to Labour thirteen years ago. Now, similar high profile politicians are desperately hoping to avoid ‘doing a Portillo’ and not only avoid losing the General Election, but also avoid losing their own seat.
Potential high profile casualties
Several of Labour’s highest-profile MPs face humiliating a defeat on May 6th, ahead of potential defeat for the Government. Tipped as the biggest casualty is Gordon Brown’s closest political ally, Children’s Secretary Ed Balls in what would be the biggest election shock since Portillo’s downfall in 1997.
Mr Balls defends the new seat of Morley and Outwood with a notional 8,669 majority. It would need a swing of almost 10.5 per cent to unseat him, but the Conservative candidate, Antony Calvert, has been campaigning diligently and Labour crashed to fourth place at the local council elections in 2008.
Mr Balls is one of a string of big guns, including former Home Secretary Jacqui Smith, ex-Transport Secretary Ruth Kelly, Chancellor Alistair Darling, Justice Secretary Jack Straw and Olympics minister Tessa Jowell who all face a desperate battle to cling on to their seats.
Marginal seats
Former Home Secretary Jacqui Smith, who has only a 2,163 majority in Redditch, is the most likely Labour casualty, especially with the memories of her husband’s dubious satellite television usage fresh in voters’ minds.
Alistair Darling is another senior Labour figure in danger and the Chancellor may find it a challenge to hold on to Edinburgh South West. With a majority of 7,242 over the Tories, and the Liberal Democrats just a thousand votes further back in third, the challenge to unseat the Chancellor will come from both sides. However, Darling may be saved by the split in the Opposition vote working in his favour.
Whilst he is a local boy and a supporter of his home town football club, Justice Secretary Jack Straw cannot be completely confident of holding his Blackburn seat. As a former Foreign and Home Secretary, he is one of Labour’s most high profile and well-recognised MPs but local Tory councillor Michael Law-Riding only needs a 9.8 per cent swing to overturn Straw’s 8,048 majority.
Another high-profile target is Olympics minister Tessa Jowell, who holds a notional 7,853 majority over the Conservatives in Dulwich West and Norwood. With the Liberal Democrats just 500 votes further back, the former Culture Secretary could also benefit from a split in the opposition vote.
It is 3/1 that all six of these Cabinet members lose their seats on May 6th, and an 8/1 chance that seven or more of the current 23 Cabinet members fail to be re-elected.