Election Betting.com

Imagine the scene. Six weeks before England’s opening match at this summer’s World Cup – a tournament England have an outside chance of winning – Fabio Capello stands up in front of all the opposition managers heading to South Africa and tells them that his team’s form has been rubbish over the last few months, and shows no sign of getting better. He does, however, stress that he thinks he and his coaching staff are the men who can improve England’s fortunes.

It would be ridiculous, wouldn’t it?

And yet, with the Budget scheduled to take place on 24th March – just six weeks before the General Election – that’s the scenario the Labour government find themselves in today.

Alistair Darling will deliver one of the most eagerly awaited Budget speeches in recent history on 24th March. With Gordon Brown and Labour set to argue that a change of government would damage the nation’s economic recovery, the plans to be outlined in the last Budget before the General Election could either make or break Labour’s chances at the polls.

Darling and Labour have a huge problem. The ideal political Budget offers some nice financial incentives to voters such as a small tax cut, perhaps, or a freezing of duty on cigarettes or booze. However, any such measures this time around will be pounced on as irresponsible when Britain has borrowed several hundred gazillion pounds in recent months as a result of the credit crunch and financial crisis.

Darling has to appear to be in control of reducing Britain’s deficit, whilst not announcing any measures so stringent that it alienates millions of voters already struggling financially. It’s a tightrope as thin as Liverpool’s chances of playing Champions League football in 2011.

The easiest way for Darling to tackle Britain’s huge deficit is to raise taxes and duties in order to generate additional revenue. If Labour were assured of a safe election victory he could increase the road fund licence, National Insurance, income tax, VAT, duties on cigarettes and alcohol and Corporation Tax.
However, they are a lengthy 4/1 to win most seats at the forthcoming Election and so hitting every voter in the pocket with tax increases isn’t the brightest political decision Labour could make. However, a rise on duties is almost expected by voters and so he does have an easy way of making a few quid there. It’s 1/3 that duty on cigarettes increases, and 2/3 that we pay more tax on booze.

Changing major taxation rates is more unlikely however, as this generates headlines and negative mutterings from voters. It’s an evens chance that the highest rate of income tax remains at 50p and 5/4 that Darling increases it by up to 5p in the pound. The 10/11 on Corporation Tax being unchanged looks about right, as does the 8/13 on VAT being left at 17.5%.

Where Darling could save money, however, is on Jobseekers allowance. If he froze the benefit (a 2/1 chance) it would save the Government millions of pounds, although with increasing numbers of people out of work it might hit their vote in key marginal areas where unemployment rates are highest.

So, it looks like Gordon Brown has chosen 6th May 2010 for the General Election. Mind you, bearing in mind that the unofficial Election campaign started weeks ago, I suppose it doesn’t make an iota of difference when the actual date of the ballot is.

Alistair Darling (why couldn’t the PM have been Gordon Melchett, just for easy laughs?) will announce that this year’s Budget will be held on 24th March and that, apparently, paves the way for the Election to be held on 6th May.

Astonishingly, considering that we nearly ended up in the biggest Depression since the 1930s, Brown is putting his stewardship of the economy at the centre of his Election campaign. I’m not quite sure how he’s going to get away with that one; it’s a bit like Ashley Cole trying to win Cheryl back by telling her he’s got a new mobile phone with a better camera on it.

His argument will be that whilst Labour can continue the economic recovery, a Conservative government would put any recovery in jeopardy. That seems unlikely, though, seeing as George Osborne has enough money in his Norwich and Peterborough Instant Access Savings Account to wipe the national debt instantly.

Despite recent polls showing their lead is narrowing, the General Election betting shows that the Conservatives remain 1/7 to win most seats, with Labour 4/1 and the Liberal Democrats (Lord love them) 150/1.

One of the reasons Brown and his trusted advisors (who I read are Lord Mandelson of Transylvania, Ed ‘Coleman’ Balls, Ed Miliband and, presumably, Edd the Duck) have chosen the 6th May is that they believe they can continue to gnaw into the Conservative Party’s poll lead between now and the big day.
They will argue that fewer people lost their jobs under Labour in this recession than they did in the 1980s and fewer people lost their home this time around than they did in the 1990s recession. It’s the old ‘It doesn’t matter that we’re a complete failure; we’re still better than the previous lot over the last twenty years’ argument, which, to be fair, has kept Rafa Benitez in a job for years.

Apparently, Brown will head to Buckingham Palace for tea with the Queen on 6th April so as not to disturb Her Majesty over the Easter weekend. After a lovely scone and jam, she will dissolve Parliament and then it will be gloves off as we have a one month long campaign before polling on 6th May. It is, coincidentally, also the day for local elections in England.

So, pencil the 6th May in your diary. You’ll probably have had a short week at work as there’s a Bank Holiday that week. There’ll be no important football on the telly to distract you although you might have to tape Eastenders if you’re planning on voting in the evening….